感知风险对在线旅游产品购买意愿的影响分析

旅游电子商务发展迅猛,互联网购物平台的虚拟性和远程性强化了消费者感知风险,它也成为影响旅游电子商务发展的重要因素之一.文章聚焦消费者感知风险,运用SPSS 19.0及AMOS 21.0软件,构建以5个维度的感知风险为自变量、购买意愿为因变量、信任为调节变量的结构方程模型,探讨变量间相关关系.结果发现:感知风险对信任的影响差异较大,仅经济风险感知与信任呈显著负相关;感知风险对购买意愿总效应皆呈负相关;信任作为中介变量存在明显的调节作用,有效地降低了感知风险对购买意愿的负向影响.     

A qualitative investigation of risk and protective factors for interpersonal violence in adults on the autism spectrum

Abstract

Individuals on the autism spectrum are at an increased risk of experiencing violence. This study sought to understand the opinions of adults on the spectrum regarding potential risk and protective factors for interpersonal violence. Twenty-two adults (12 men; 18 to 53 years of age) participated in semi-structured qualitative interviews. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and analysed. The results of the qualitative analysis identified individual and contextual risk and protective factors. Protective themes focused on individual needs (awareness of the self and the environment, interpersonal knowledge/skills, skill building strategies) and supportive contexts (benefits of a trusted person, advocates, fostering acceptance and inclusion). There is a need for strategies to decrease the vulnerability to, and the impact of, interpersonal violence. Individuals on the spectrum have the capacity to provide important information regarding safety promotion and risk factors for interpersonal violence, and their expertise should play a role in guiding efforts that promote safety.     

Child Care Arrangements,Division of Household Labor and Other Employment Based Familial Predictors of Marital Adjustment Among Husbands of Employed Females in Pakistan

The primary purpose of the current study was to investigate the influence of division of household labor, child care arrangements, wife’s financial contribution, work-schedule of wife, perception of wife employment and wife’s work preference were contributing to marital adjustment of husbands of working married women. Additionally, it explored the role of wife’s financial contribution, perception of wife’s employment and wife’s work preference in formation of marital adjustment among husbands of working women. The data were collected through a self-structured questionnaire from 283 husbands of employed married women with one year of marital duration and at least one child. The data were collected from the city of Gujrat, province of Punjab, Pakistan. Factor analysis was run for reliability and validity analysis was executed to examine the validity of the existing scales used in the current study. Multiple linear regression analysis was used for model fit. Division of household labor, child care arrangements, wife’s financial contributions, wife’s work-schedule, the perception of wife’s employment, and wife’s work preferences contributed to the marital adjustment of husbands of working married women. Our results seemed to reflect fluctuating dimensions of gender role ideologies among families. Incorporating new predictors of marital adjustment into literature of marriage and family has been a sociological significance of the current study.     

Joint models for mixed categorical outcomes: a study of HIV risk perception and disease status in Mozambique

Two types of bivariate models for categorical response variables are introduced to deal with special categories such as ‘unsure’ or ‘unknown’ in combination with other ordinal categories, while taking additional hierarchical data structures into account. The latter is achieved by the use of different covariance structures for a trivariate random effect. The models are applied to data from the INSIDA survey, where interest goes to the effect of covariates on the association between HIV risk perception (quadrinomial with an ‘unknown risk’ category) and HIV infection status (binary). The final model combines continuation-ratio with cumulative link logits for the risk perception, together with partly correlated and partly shared trivariate random effects for the household level. The results indicate that only age has a significant effect on the association between HIV risk perception and infection status. The proposed models may be useful in various fields of application such as social and biomedical sciences, epidemiology and public health.     

Bounded risk estimation of a linear combination of location parameters in negative exponential distributions via three-stage sampling

The paper deals with the problem of bounded risk point estimation for a linear combination of location parameters of two negative exponential distributions. Isogai and Futschik considered the situation when the location and scale parameters are all unknown. They proposed purely sequential procedures and gave second order expansions of the average sample sizes and risks. In this paper we propose three-stage procedures and derive second order expansions of the average sample sizes and risks. Further, we compare the results with those from previous work.     

新时代深化改革的风险与应对

全面深化改革是推动当今之世社会发展的巨大动力。但改革的全面深化也出现各种深层次的矛盾，加剧了各种风险的产生。横向风险、纵向风险、操作风险、外来风险交融共生，贯穿于改革全过程和各领域。有效应对改革风险，既要有敢做敢当、积极主动的态度，更要注重科学管理。应不断强化风险意识，增强风险识别能力；科学分析风险存在机制，准确评估风险承受能力；加快立法进程，依法管理风险；注重各机构协调运作，加强统筹管理。唯有如此，才能真正做到破浪前行，勇立潮头，为世界各国防范和化解改革风险提供有益借鉴。     

风险刑法理论研究中的错位与检讨

社会风险不能等同于刑法危险，但二者存在动态交叉关系，社会风险可以通过刑事政策转变为刑法中的危险。风险刑法首先是现代刑法应对风险过程中"自觉"的结果，是现代刑法体系的同质组成部分。从贝克划分社会形态的时间考虑，我国早已进入风险社会，且是全面而非局部风险社会。我国社会主要矛盾的转变使我国社会风险在质上表现为严重危害公共安全和公共利益，在量上表现为风险的相对增多，从刑法的应对上来看，似乎只能选择刑法提前介入。风险刑法理论的中国展开应该从实然和应然两个层面出发，前者旨在突出风险刑法的教义学研究，后者需要从社会风险自身的特点出发，有针对性地调整刑法体系，以期防控风险、创造安全。     

Against the De Minimis Principle

According to the class of de minimis decision principles, risks can be ignored (or at least treated very differently from other risks) if the risk is sufficiently small. In this article, we argue that a de minimis threshold has no place in a normative theory of decision making, because the application of the principle will either recommend ignoring risks that should not be ignored (e.g., the sure death of a person) or it cannot be used by ordinary bounded and information-constrained agents.     

A discrete-time risk model with Poisson ARCH claim-number process

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a discrete-time risk model with the claim number following an integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) process with Poisson deviates. In this model, the current claim number depends on the previous observations. Within this framework, the equation for finding the adjustment coefficient is derived. Numerical studies are also carried out to examine the impact of the Poisson ARCH dependence structure on the ruin probability.